Chris Welsh
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Jul 29, 2009, 1:16 PM
Post #3 of 5
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Re: [The Publisher] WHY STEVE FOSSETT CRASHED
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From Chris Welsh:
Being an acquaintance of Steve's, I followed the search for Steve with concern and was deeply disturbed when the conclusion came that he was lost, and again later when the wreckage was found and the loss was confirmed. I'm a pilot and familiar with the area, having flown it many times; furthermore by coincidence I flew the engine in the accident airplane down from the Flying M Ranch to LA in my plane when it needed to be replaced some months before, as a favor for a mechanic friend.
I also have survived a night time crash in a single engine plane after the loss of the engine, so I have some understanding of both the NTSB process and challenging moments in an airplane.
In reading the NTSB report, I am troubled by the cause determined. The downdraft verdict unquestionably is possible, but to me, does not square with the velocity of the crash, which seems more consistent with a medical event and loss of pilot capacity. In a downdraft scenario, the nose is high and groundspeed tends to be low as the pilot tries to contend with the loss of climb capability by pulling back more and more on the yoke. As a back country aircraft, nose high and fighting for altitude in that scenario, the accident plane would have had a very low groundspeed and might have touched down at 20-25 knots groundspeed. Steve's plane was shattered horribly and the engine half a football field away; this is not a 25 knot impact, but more inline with 100 knots plus.
Before Steve's accident, friends of mine were lost in a Cessna 210 accident near Newport Beach on a clear day; the surprising outcome was a previously undiagnosed severe arterial blockage and a cardiac event at the time of the accident. The pilot had had all of the normal medical reviews, was in his early fifties at the time and was fit. Because the wreckage was recovered immediately it was possible to find the medical causation. Early puzzlement at how that crash could have occurred so violently had the plane been under control made sense when it was found that the pilot was incapacitated and not in control any longer.
The difference between the two causes does not bring Steve back, but is a wholly different situation when looking at the accident and whether it was a question of flying choices or not. If he had a serious medical event, it is possible that his untimely death was inevitable, whether flying or seated at the ranch at the moment it hit.
In my friend's Cessna 210 accident, there was some comfort in understanding that the loss of our friend was inevitable at that moment, regardless of where he had been, that he was likely unaware at the time of the crash, and flying skill and judgment had no role in the outcome. I think it is very possible that Steve's accident was similar in cause.
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